The primary train moves on, yesterday to Idaho, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and Oregon.
Two stories to emerge on the Democratic side are that yes, there was evidence of huge enthusiasm (the eponymous #BlueWave), but Dem primary voters are also not too keen on the sensible, could-win-the-general, more right-leaning candidates their party is supporting.
On the left and right, primary voters are polarized, a longterm trend that seems particularly stark this cycle.
Earlier this week, Conor Lamb won his Pennsylvania special election race by 627 votes. This is an incredibly small margin in any race, but particularly in a race where over 200,000 were cast. It’s also impressive because President Trump won the district by 19.6% a just over a year ago.
What are the lessons of this dramatic win for activists in red states and districts? The video below presents data from the Partisan Voter Index which allows comparison between districts on how likely voters are to elect a Democrat or Republican. Lamb’s district, the Pennsylvania 18th, is an R +11, a seemingly safe Republican seat. (The maximum Republican score is a R+33.)
Based on this data, there are 119 Congressional seats currently held by Republicans are an R+11 or less. These are the new battleground districts of 2018.